The Ukraine war is not merely a proxy war between the EU and US vs. Russia: China is aiding Russia's war effort. And so, the West is fighting a large, hot proxy war with China.

This post is inspired by a post by Noah Smith^[1] and many of the citations come from the Sentinel Newsletter, which I highly recommend subscribing to.

The West's support for Ukraine

Uncontroversially, the Ukraine War is a proxy conflict of the West vs Russia.The West (mostly Europe and the US, but also Japan and Canada) support Ukraine's defense against Russia. This is to keep Russia occupied as Ukraine's fall might endanger other EU countries. European and US personnel were much more heavily involved in Ukraine's war effort than previously known, shaping battle strategies and directing targeting via intelligence.^[2]

The EU and the US both have similar GDP's of ~$30T and spend 2% and 3.4% respectively on defence.^[3] Recently, NATO countries have committed to ramp this up to 3.5%.^[4] Both EU and US spend ~0.2% of GDP of it to help Ukraine:^[5]

They might also confiscate ~$300B in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.^[6]

China's support for Russia

But more ominously: we can view the Russo-Ukrainian war as a proxy war of China against the West. China's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict mirrors that of the West's support for Ukraine.

China's support for Russia is growing in various forms.

Amid signs of continued and deepening military integration, China supplies Russia with:

Mercenaries^[7], drones, military imagery, microelectronics, tank tools, optics, propellants to be used in missiles, machine tools, nitrocellulose, and turbojet engines, and increased space cooperation.
China has built Russia's defense industrial base,^[8] helped Iran provide Russia with drones, and assented as North Korea has sent troops to fight in Europe. All governments are working to erode U.S. sanctions and are engaged in diplomatic coordination, intelligence sharing, and military exercises.^[9]
Russia might also be producing lethal drones in China^[10],^[11]

Economic integration: Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Chinese exports to Russia soared, rising by over 70% between 2021 and 2024.^[12] In return, Russia supplies China with fossil fuels for China's growing energy needs..

And so, the Ukraine War now looks like a proxy war between China and the West.

Why is China doing that?

Distraction: China's Foreign Minister reportedly told the EU that China cannot accept a Russian defeat in Ukraine, fearing the US would then focus attention on China and Taiwan.^[13] This suggests that China would like to see a drawn-out conflict.^[14]
Economic interests: Chinese companies are already operating in the Donbas region, and the US probably wants Russia to kick them out.^[15]
Chinese officials think the US and NATO provoked Russia, using Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia.^[16]
‘Xi and Putin Weaponize WWII’s Legacy: by Joseph Torigian examines how Xi and Putin have leveraged the 80th anniversary of WWII’s end to legitimize authoritarianism and territorial expansion from Yalta to Kaohsiung. Both leaders lost family in the war, and now view themselves as inheritors of an unfinished struggle against Western hegemonic forces. Yet their instrumental use of history — through censorship, patriotic education, and civilizational rhetoric — carries risks. As Russia suffers from war fatigue, brain drain, and demographic decline, China must manage the tension between anti-Western signaling and its dependence on Western trade.’^[17]
'China is an ideologically driven system and the world in which China is able to more dramatically reshape the global balance of power over a 15 year horizon is one that we should be really concerned about. AI concerns me, and I want to discuss the broader community's discomfort with a multi-decade timeline where the U.S. and its allies are waning relative to China. It is not possible to know with a high degree of confidence what China really wants. But there's at least a 25% chance that the Chinese government we get in the coming decades is a deeply Leninist and expansionary one. And that is a scary timeline that the world needs to price in and prepare for.'^[18]
Perhaps China's slowing economy could increase the odds of it entering the war because they might need an economic stimulus or enter the war to distract from internal problems.

Implications

An alliance of authoritarian countries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea), are increasingly cooperating in opposition to the West. This collaboration has made the world more dangerous, unpredictable. The authoritarian countries provide mutual practical support.
Forecasters believe there's a 15% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035.^[19]
A top US general said that NATO must prepare for the possibility that China and Russia could coordinate to invade Taiwan and start a war in Europe simultaneously, as early as 2027.^[20]

Counter-evidence

'Yes, China is not a democracy. But by global standards, it hasn't been especially militaristic. There have been border disputes, but no major invasions in over 50 years. China isn't sending troops to the Middle East or Latin America. That could change. But nothing inescapable says the U.S. and China must be enemies. We have far more to gain from peace, trade, and prosperity than from conflict.'^[21] East Asian nations managed to peacefully coexist for centuries and lessons from European history don't always apply^[22]
China has incredible drone production capacity. And they haven't gone all out in their support. However, Russia and China are good at boiling the frog and not giving anyone a pearl harbor moment.^[23] China is also supplying Ukraine with drone parts—however, China might soon stop this with new export controls.^[24]
China has also unleashed hackers against Russia, seeking war secrets.^[25]
A highly-viewed Chinese video suggests China should seize Siberia and parts of eastern Russia following a potential Russian defeat and collapse in Ukraine. This reflects a desire, shared by the Chinese government, to reclaim territory lost to Russia after the Qing dynasty's collapse, and more.^[26]